BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders that businesses such as digital assets and private markets are expected to contribute $500 million in revenue within five years, but the growth rate of its crypto ETFs has already made this target appear overly conservative.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the product with the highest revenue per unit of assets among the company's global portfolio of over a thousand ETFs. The speed at which it surpassed $100 billion in assets was five times that of traditional ETFs, and it is also the youngest and fastest-growing among the top 20 largest ETFs in the US.
After Trump's election victory in 2024, Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $126,000. Although the price subsequently retreated, and IBIT's total return fell by 18.82%, the asset shrinkage did not affect the fee mechanism.
Fund filing data shows that IBIT generated revenues of $47.5 million in 2024 and $174.6 million in 2025, while ETHA contributed $19.3 million during the same period. The cumulative net fee income of the two funds in their first two years reached $241.4 million.
Including the newly launched ETHB in March, BlackRock's crypto ETF portfolio currently has a size of approximately $61.6 billion, with an annualized fee income of about $156 million.
Calculated at a fee rate of 0.25%, the crypto ETFs need to reach a scale of $200 billion to achieve the annual revenue target of $500 million, leaving a current gap of $138.4 billion.
Relying solely on price increases is insufficient to close the gap. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by the end of 2026, which would only bring the portfolio size to about $91.8 billion without new inflows. Even with Bernstein's bullish forecast of Bitcoin reaching $150,000, a gap of $68.9 billion would remain.
Capital inflows have become the core driver for closing the gap. Data shows the three crypto ETFs have net annual inflows of about $34 billion; maintaining this growth rate could achieve the target within four years.
In terms of cumulative revenue, BlackRock's crypto ETFs could surpass $500 million as early as mid-2027. If asset growth is 40%-50%, this milestone could be advanced to early 2027. Even with a 30% asset decline, the target could still be achieved by late 2027 to early 2028. Only a sustained 50% asset drop would significantly delay the timeline.
For comparison, the annual fees of the US's largest gold ETF, GLD, are about $604 million. BlackRock's crypto ETFs would need to reach 132% of GLD's scale to generate $500 million annually.
From the perspective of the company's overall revenue, $500 million represents only 2.1% of BlackRock's total revenue and 2.6% of its fee income. While not a core business, it can solidify the position of crypto ETFs within its business system.
Therefore, Fink's five-year target does not rely solely on a single currency's price or capital inflows. The core depends on whether the crypto ETF portfolio can ultimately surpass $200 billion in assets, which also signifies whether the crypto market can reach a broader base of investors.
