Author: Blockchain Knight
After Bitcoin rebounded to the key level of $80,000, early holders showed signs of concentrated profit-taking, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous institutional capital absorbing market sell pressure.
With Bitcoin firmly above $80,000, the market has experienced a clear wave of profit-taking.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders who have held for 2 to 3 years have accelerated their selling pace, with profit-taking reaching $209 million per hour. The returns for these investors generally range from 60% to 100%.
The total realized net profit/loss of Bitcoin across the network has climbed to $1.12 billion, the highest level since last December.
Unlike traditional stock market sell-offs that easily trigger panic, the crypto market views large-scale profit-taking during an uptrend as a sign of a healthy fundamental market.
Despite sell pressure of hundreds of millions of dollars, Bitcoin held its ground at $80,000, confirming strong real buying demand in the market.
At the same time, coins changed hands—profitable positions exited at high levels, while new entrants took over at around $80,000, reshaping the overall market holding cost and solidifying bottom support. Short-term selling sentiment in the market has stabilized.
Spot ETFs are the core pillar stabilizing the market. In the first two trading days of May, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $1.1 billion, with BlackRock-related products alone absorbing over $600 million.
Currently, ETF capital inflows show a trend of extended inflow periods and weakening outflows, with institutional long-term allocation demand continuing to be released.
According to industry institutions, current institutional buying volume is more than 5 times the daily new Bitcoin supply from miners. Based on historical trends, the average gain over the following month is considerable.
The derivatives market continues to squeeze shorts. Since early February, the total liquidation scale of short positions has reached $7.88 billion.
Even as shorts keep adding positions at the $80,000 resistance level, they continue to face forced liquidations, further boosting the upward trend.
Market forecast data shows a 62% probability of Bitcoin breaking through $85,000 by the end of the month, and a 25% probability of reaching $90,000.
On the macro level, Bitcoin has withstood external headwinds such as Federal Reserve policy and oil price fluctuations, showing strong resilience. However, the $82,000 to $83,000 range and the 200-day moving average still present technical resistance.
Easing geopolitical tensions have reduced market volatility, and U.S. crypto industry regulatory bills have entered the review stage. The expectation of regulatory certainty has boosted institutional confidence, and the industry generally believes that the crypto market has entered a recovery cycle.
Therefore, the battle between bulls and bears at the $80,000 level appears more like Bitcoin's transition from a speculative retail target to an institutional allocation asset.
As long as ETF institutional buying continues to absorb profit-taking pressure, Bitcoin will have solid fundamental support to challenge the next key level.
