Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jinshi Data
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he is concerned about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events, stating that the world has "become a little bit like a casino."
When asked about the arrest of a U.S. Special Forces soldier suspected of betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said he was not aware of the specifics but would look into it.
U.S. ABC News, citing sources, reported that U.S. federal authorities on Thursday arrested a Special Forces soldier involved in the operation to capture Maduro, who is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power.
According to sources, federal investigators believe that the soldier placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January. The series of bets yielded profits exceeding $409,000, immediately triggering scrutiny within the prediction market and leading to a months-long insider trading investigation.
"It's like Pete Rose betting on his own team," Trump said, referring to the late baseball player who was banned from Major League Baseball for gambling.
When pressed on whether he is concerned about betting activities related to the conflict with Iran, Trump said it is a global issue.
"Well, I think the whole world, unfortunately, has become a little bit like a casino," Trump said, adding that such betting "is happening all over the world, people are doing these gambling activities everywhere."
"Now, I'm not happy about it," he concluded.
Trump's Iran Policy Shift Highlights Threat of Insider Trading in Washington
In the oil market, volatility has recently surged to levels not seen since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global commodities and stock markets have swung wildly with every twist and turn in the Iran conflict: strikes, pauses, "threats to destroy a civilization," ceasefires; then deals, no deals, and the prospect of deals again...
A recurring theme amid the recent market turmoil has been trades timed with impeccable precision that generated substantial profits for traders. Some of these trades, particularly in the oil market, appear to follow a pattern: perfect timing, just before Trump issued a statement or social media post.
In a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requesting an investigation, Senator Elizabeth Warren cited multiple trades on April 7. Around 3:45 p.m. New York time that day, traders executed over 15 million barrels of Brent crude oil and WTI futures contracts within two minutes, valued at approximately $17 billion. During the same period, a similar surge occurred in U.S. and European stock index futures trading.
About three hours later, Trump posted on social media that he would announce a two-week ceasefire. When markets reopened, WTI crude oil prices fell more than 15% in early trading, while stocks rose over 2.5%. Theoretically, if an investor had shorted $1 million worth of crude oil futures during the afternoon trading surge and closed the position for profit after Trump's ceasefire announcement that evening, they could have earned nearly $170,000.
Previously, on March 23, billions of dollars worth of crude oil and stock index futures changed hands just 16 minutes before Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. According to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg, within two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. New York time, the contracts traded represented at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil.
During the same period, approximately 6,000 U.S. stock index futures contracts were traded, valued at over $20 billion. After Trump's post went out at 7:05 a.m., Brent crude fell about 15%, and U.S. stocks rose nearly 4% from intraday lows to intraday highs.
Democratic lawmakers and other critics argue that some recent profitable trades seem "incredibly perfect," difficult to explain by skill or luck alone. Under mounting political pressure, the CFTC has launched an investigation into signs of insider trading.
In the latest incident, Representative Ritchie Torres on Wednesday asked the CFTC to expand its investigation to include "suspicious" trading in oil futures preceding Trump's announcement of an extended ceasefire this week.
"This incident is not an isolated case; rather, it is part of a broader and deeply concerning pattern," he wrote. The CFTC previously declined to comment on the investigation and did not respond to related questions on Thursday.
So far, no evidence has emerged of White House staff profiting from insider trading. However, officials recently sent an email to all employees warning them against using confidential information for trading. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement on Thursday:
"All federal employees are bound by government ethics rules, which prohibit using non-public information for financial gain. However, suggesting, without evidence, that government officials engage in such activities is baseless and irresponsible reporting. The CFTC will always fulfill its duty, monitoring daily for fraud, manipulation, and illegal activity."
CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which operate the major crude oil futures trading platforms, both declined to comment.
Admittedly, concerns that government information could be used for insider trading have arisen during previous administrations, including Trump's first term.
In 2019, following a controversial Vanity Fair article suggesting investors made billions trading on news before it was released to the market, the CFTC investigated whether government leaks fueled massive profits in futures markets. That investigation ultimately did not lead to enforcement action.
Aitan Goelman, former head of the CFTC's Division of Enforcement and now a partner at the law firm Zuckerman Spaeder, said the derivatives regulator has ample investigative power. However, he noted that penalizing those identified in suspicious trades is more challenging.
Derivatives rules make it "more complicated than the situation in securities," he said.
The CFTC's primary authority to root out insider trading based on government information sources is also relatively new. Concerned that futures traders might profit from inside information, lawmakers included a provision known as the "Eddie Murphy rule" in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.
The regulation made it illegal for investors in commodities markets to engage in schemes like those depicted in the famous 1980s film "Trading Places." In that movie, characters played by Murphy and Dan Aykroyd used a leaked government crop report to make millions betting on orange juice futures.
As the CFTC delves deeper and online debates intensify over whether certain trades were driven by inside information, markets beyond crude oil continue to fluctuate.
Even before the Iran conflict erupted, murmurs in Washington questioned whether people were using inside information about Trump or his administration's next moves to place bets. Trades executed before Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff pause announcement in April 2025, and prediction market bets on the ouster of Venezuelan leader Maduro, have fueled speculation.
Betting on world events is booming on prediction markets. On the Polymarket platform, the geopolitical category is rapidly becoming one of the platform's most popular. According to data compiled by users on Dune Analytics, in the week ending April 6, bettors placed a record $560 million on this category, compared to about $100 million in the first week of the year.
Unlike crowded crude oil futures trading, liquidity in prediction markets can be relatively sparse – making it easier to influence the market. This was fully demonstrated in January: a single trader on Polymarket earned nearly $400,000 by betting on Maduro's capture, with the largest bets placed just before Trump publicly announced the military operation.
The Maduro incident also affected other geopolitical bets. At the time, bets that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei would be ousted before summer surged sharply. He died within the first hours of the war's outbreak.
In March, Polymarket announced "enhanced market integrity rules," explicitly prohibiting three types of insider trading: trading using stolen confidential information, illegal tipping, and betting by individuals who can influence the outcome of an event. The company also stated that all forms of fraud and market manipulation are prohibited.
Integrity issues on prediction markets are not limited to conflict betting. Kalshi said on Wednesday it had suspended and fined three congressional candidates for "political insider trading" related to bets on their own campaigns. The company had no further comment on Thursday. Kalshi lists insider trading bans on its website and said in March it was taking additional steps to prevent it.
More bets on politics and global events are coming. Along with them, more questions about how the people behind the bets guessed correctly.
Disclaimer: This article is written by a contributor to Jinse Finance. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or endorsement of Jinse Finance.
Reminder: Investment involves risks. Proceed with caution. This information does not constitute investment or financial advice.
