Written by: Fang Dao
Fang Dao's Flowing Gold ｜
"The bottom has not yet arrived."
This is the most widely accepted judgment in the current market. The path given by analyst Benjamin Cowen based on historical cycles remains clear—Bitcoin typically bottoms about a year after its peak. By this reckoning, the low point of the current cycle is more likely to occur at the end of 2026.
The reason this logic holds is that past cycles have always unfolded along the same path: emotions are amplified at the top, leverage accumulates as a result, and eventually, a clearance is completed amid liquidity contraction.
But the problem with the current market is not about timing, but rather whether this path itself is still intact.
This cycle has not seen retail frenzy comparable to previous ones, nor has it formed a leverage buildup of the same magnitude. Prices have been achieved at high levels, yet without experiencing extreme emotional release.
When the market enters an adjustment phase, the lack of sufficient "forced selling" makes it difficult to trigger the familiar liquidity collapse.
This is also why, on one hand, people discuss that the bottom has not yet arrived, while on the other hand, prices remain resilient in the 75,000 to 78,000 range.
The market is not refusing to decline; it is simply lacking the conditions for decline.
This change is beginning to distort the cycle. In the past, bottoms were often formed by drastic clearances, whereas now they are more likely to be completed gradually through the digestion of time and structure. Prices no longer plunge quickly but instead adjust repeatedly within a range.
Meanwhile, for the first time, Bitcoin is being priced within a more complex macro environment.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and energy price fluctuations, it has neither fully followed risk assets downward nor behaved as a traditional safe-haven tool, but instead remained relatively stable amid volatility.
This feels more like a test.
The market is verifying whether Bitcoin is still entirely bound by its own cycle, or whether it has begun to develop the ability to operate independently amid external shocks.
If cycles still dominate everything, then macro variables will only amplify existing trends; but current performance suggests that prices are gradually breaking away from a single internal logic and beginning to be influenced by a wider range of factors.
A deeper change is occurring in the holding structure.
In the past, Bitcoin's price was primarily determined by trading activity, but now, an increasing amount of chips are entering corporate balance sheets and institutional allocation systems.
The characteristic of these funds is a longer holding cycle and higher exit costs.
When chips in the market no longer flow frequently, prices no longer rely on violent fluctuations to rebalance, but instead gradually recover through slower adjustments.
This also changes the source of returns. In the past, returns relied on volatility, whereas now they come more from allocation itself. The threshold for triggering extreme market movements is raised, while the price center gradually stabilizes.
In such an environment, the question of "whether the bottom has arrived" begins to lose its relevance. Because a bottom essentially depends on a clear sentiment reversal, and the current market is losing the structural conditions to form such a reversal.
Back to the 78,000 level. It is not just a price range, but more like a boundary between two logics. On one side are traders still relying on historical experience, waiting for the bottom; on the other side are funds that have already started repricing based on asset allocation.
The analyst's judgment remains valid, but the premises it relies on are changing. The market does not negate the cycle; it is merely redefining the cycle.
References
Benzinga Report
Summary of Benjamin Cowen's Views
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and research exchange purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market cycles are highly uncertain; please exercise rational judgment.
