Author: Yue Xiaoyu; Source: X, @yuexiaoyu 111
Many people are still looking for the sword from the mark on the boat, but they haven't realized that the Bitcoin market has undergone a structural change.
1. Does the Bitcoin four-year cycle still exist?
Gold has surged, silver has surged, even A-shares have surged, but Bitcoin hasn't risen this year.
In fact, the four-year cycle has clearly been broken.
This bull market not only started early, but its rise and fall patterns have not replicated previous cycles.
According to past patterns, 2025 should have been a big bull year, but this year's performance has been relatively poor.
2. Why has the four-year cycle been broken?
One core reason is: Bitcoin has shifted from being supply-determined to being demand-determined in terms of price.
Previously, Bitcoin's supply halved every 4 years; with demand unchanged, the price naturally rose. Now, most Bitcoin has already been mined, so the annual change in Bitcoin supply has a smaller impact on its price.
On the other hand, the pricing power for Bitcoin has fallen into the hands of Wall Street. Traditional financial institutions are continuously entering the market, and traditional capital is continuously flowing in.
Changes on the demand side of the market now have a greater influence than changes in supply.
3. What is the next stage for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's current narrative is "digital gold," but for Bitcoin to truly replace gold, it needs to have properties that are 10 times superior to gold's.
Bitcoin already possesses gold's scarcity, but it has one greatest potential yet to be unleashed: its digital nature.
Or it could be called programmability.
If one simply hoards Bitcoin, it's no different from gold. What gold cannot do is become an interest-bearing asset, but Bitcoin can.
A financial system can be built around Bitcoin.
Imagine Bitcoin also becoming digital oil, usable in various practical scenarios; Bitcoin could also become digital bonds, giving rise to various financial derivatives.
Currently, there are already some projects continuously building in this direction, a typical example being GOAT Network, which positions itself as the Bitcoin yield layer.
Bitcoin's next narrative should be "interest-bearing digital gold."
This narrative point has not yet been fully valued by the market. It is advisable to position in related projects early.
