Author: Fang Dao
Fang Dao Liujin｜
Bitcoin has risen approximately 15% over the past 30 days. On the surface, this appears to be a technical rebound; however, when price action is examined alongside on-chain structures, this upward move resembles more of a rebalancing of holder composition.
The “morning star pattern” formed since April reflects a process of market sell-off release, wait-and-see contraction, and subsequent buying recovery. But what truly deserves attention is not the pattern itself, but the shift in participants behind it.
On-chain data shows that the proportion of realized market cap contributed by short-term holders has fallen back below 7%. Historically, this level has typically corresponded to a phase where short-term traders exit and market participation declines. As frequently traded chips gradually diminish, prices become less driven by emotional fluctuations and are increasingly influenced by long-term holding structures.
Capital flows are also aligning with this change. Recent net inflows of approximately USD 3 billion mark the first sustained positive inflows since December last year. This indicates that market capital is shifting from a defensive stance to an accumulation phase. Unlike short-term funds, such capital has a higher tolerance for price volatility and is more likely to support trend continuation.
The current key level is around USD 78,000. Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market price of approximately USD 78,100, returning to this level for the first time since mid-January. Further above, the USD 80,100 area corresponds to the short-term holder cost basis.
The significance of this zone is not merely technical resistance, but behavioral resistance.
Once prices approach the short-term holder cost basis, funds purchased over the past period enter a state of being breakeven or in profit. Glassnode data shows that realized profits for short-term holders have risen to approximately USD 4.4 million per hour, significantly higher than the reference level of around USD 1.5 million seen near previous local highs. This indicates that the market is undergoing a round of profit-taking at elevated levels.
Therefore, the core question for the current market is not whether the 15% rally has ended, but whether new capital can sustainably absorb the chips released by short-term holders.
If ETF and institutional allocation inflows continue, the support zone above USD 73,000 could become a new cost floor. If inflows weaken, short-term profit-taking may once again suppress the price rhythm.
This is also what distinguishes this rally from ordinary technical rebounds.
Prices are no longer merely moving around patterns, but are testing the absorption capacity of the holder structure. Technical patterns still matter, but what truly determines the trend behind them is who is selling and who is willing to keep holding.
Whether Bitcoin’s rally continues ultimately depends on whether this round of chip redistribution can be completed. After short-term traders exit, the market needs new long-term buyers to take over pricing in the next phase.
References
Benzinga technical analysis reports
Ali Martinez on-chain and pattern analysis CryptoQuant / Glassnode market structure data
Disclaimer
This article is for information and research exchange purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile, and market structure changes are subject to uncertainty.
