Written by: Blockchain Knight
Vanguard's position in Metaplanet grew by 11% from the end of November to the end of December, sparking speculation about its stance on the DAT strategy. However, this move was not an active bullish bet but rather a mechanical adjustment due to its index tracking.
Metaplanet constitutes less than 0.01% of its fund. The change in position stemmed from the increased index weight due to Metaplanet's rising market capitalization and is unrelated to Vanguard's attitude towards DAT assets.
What truly warrants attention is whether there has been a substantive improvement in the fundamentals driving DAT valuations. This requires analysis from dimensions such as the core metric market Net Asset Value (mNAV) and the pace of Bitcoin accumulation.
mNAV is key to assessing the health of a DAT. When this metric is greater than 1, the company can enhance shareholder value by issuing shares to buy Bitcoin. When it is less than 1, value is destroyed through dilution, and the strategy should shift towards capital preservation.
As of mid-January, the mNAV performance of leading Bitcoin treasury operators shows significant divergence: Metaplanet trades at a 1.37x premium and still increased its Bitcoin holdings on December 30th, indicating its equity issuance accumulation flywheel remains effective.
Strategy's mNAV is 0.93x. While it continues to accumulate BTC, issuing shares in the short term would dilute shareholders. Semler's mNAV is as low as 0.88x. It paused Bitcoin purchases after October, shifting towards capital discipline.
This divergence stems from the market's differentiated perception of each company's risks and operations. Metaplanet receives a valuation premium due to being outside US regulation and having a clean balance sheet.
Although Strategy accumulates aggressively, its complex convertible note structure and market skepticism about catalysts cause it to trade at a discount.
The valuations of targets like MARA and Coinbase are influenced by mining operations and non-crypto revenue, differing from the logic of pure DAT plays. This also highlights the limitations of viewing DATs as a homogeneous asset class.
The core logic of DATs relies on the flywheel effect of mNAV being greater than 1. When this metric falls below 1, the model of issuing shares to buy Bitcoin becomes ineffective.
Strategy's persistence in accumulating despite trading at a discount is a bet on a subsequent stock price rebound or a consideration for long-term holding.
Metaplanet, with its premium mNAV, can continuously expand its balance sheet without trade-offs. Semler's pause in Bitcoin purchases is a rational capital allocation choice in a discounted state.
The current market does not represent a broad recovery for the DAT industry. Only some targets demonstrate strength. A true industry recovery requires meeting three conditions:
Widespread expansion of mNAV among leading operators, a sustained acceleration in Bitcoin accumulation pace, and the equity market rewarding the DAT model with valuations.
Currently, only a few operators like Metaplanet in non-US jurisdictions with healthy balance sheets meet the premium condition. Strategy's discount and Semler's paused accumulation reflect that the market has not yet formed a widespread consensus on the DAT model.
The Bitcoin treasury stock sector has already shown a clear split. Industry trends are no longer driven by an overall wave but depend more on each company's specific operational execution, regulatory environment, and balance sheet condition. The so-called comprehensive return of the DAT industry may not have arrived yet.
