Brutal Market – Analyst Ben Cowen Predicts Rough Times Ahead for AltcoinsSummary
Ben Cowen believes we are entering a decisive phase in crypto.
The macro market spells more trouble for altcoins.
The largest alt, ETH, may still see a considerable correction.
Liquidity is key, more so than fundamentals, according to the analysts.
Benjamin Cowen, known for his thorough market analysis on his YouTube channel and on X, has shared his latest insights into where the crypto markets are trending. In a post, he stated that as Bitcoin (BTC) price drops, Bitcoin becomes the more dominant asset. This is based on altcoins dropping more than BTC, which he believes is the worst part of the market cycle.
We’ve been discussing this phase of the market cycle for a while.
Namely, where #BTCdrops, but BTC dominance goes up, because altcoins are dropping more.
It is always the most brutal part of the market cycle. pic.twitter.com/ueLIcwUkOw
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 9, 2023
Downtrend and Altcoin Performance
In a YouTube video with long-time trader Gareth Soloway, Cowenconfirmedthat he believes we are in what he calls “that brutal phase of the market.”
According to Cowen, we are currently seeing Bitcoin putting in lower highs, indicating a continued downtrend. While Bitcoin goes down, Bitcoin pairs are going down even faster. This shows the increasing dominance of Bitcoin and the fast price decline in altcoins.
Source: TradingView.com
Other Influencing Factors and a Looming Recession
Contrary to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the Fed does not believe a recession is coming, both Cowen and Soloway believe otherwise. The analysts, who have decades of experience between them, feel that a recession is very much on the cards.
They base this on U.S. labour market data, which despite job growth shows that more people are in part time work. Cowen also referred to what’s known as “higher for longer”. This refers to the fact that when interest rates remain high for prolonged periods, businesses start to cut cost.
Soloway also pointed out that Bitcoin is not the digital gold it so often is compared to. At the time of the Video, Gold was up, and Bitcoin down.
Soloway said, “Bitcoin is obviously not the digital gold yet, otherwise it would be up, with Gold. Bitcoin is clearly still somewhat of a risk asset, which is clearly seen by the chart.”
When Markets are Down, Altcoins are More Risky
Due to decreased liquidity, Soloway argued that no matter how strong altcoin fundamentals are, alts are going to have a hard time. Cowen agreed, saying without liquidity, fundamentals don’t mean much at all.
Source: TradingView.com
The analysts also agreed that the current wedge forming on the Ethereum/ Bitcoin chart is very much resembling the situation in the last bear market and could mean a further downward trend close to US $1,000 ($1,559).
Cowen said,
ETH/BTC collapse is continuing. It has been a pretty slow process so far, certainly slower than I was expecting; but the trend has in fact been down for a long time.
Ben CowenAnalysts Forecast Increased Volatility in Markets Due to Israel-Palestine WarAs Israel declares a state of war against the Palestinian military group Hamas, the crypto community is speculating on how Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader altcoin markets will react.
The market volatilitytends to increase during geopolitical crises such as war or other military conflicts. While the price of commodities such as oil and gold increases, investors tend to move away from riskier assets such as stocks and crypto.
Crypto Analyst Expects Volatility in Shorter Term
The renowned crypto analyst Miles Deutscher talked about the impact on the S&P 500 due to the Israel-Palestine war. He wrote on X (Twitter):
“Data suggests that markets typically recover quickly from wars and other geopolitical shocks despite experiencing initial volatility.”
The screenshot below shows that while there was uncertainty in the first month of the conflict, the market started turning positive after three months in most cases. In 75% of the cases, the S&P 500 was positive 12 months after the military event.
The data accounted for military conflicts in the period between the Pearl Harbor incident in December 1941 and the Iraq war in March 2003.
The cryptocurrency market has not witnessed major geopolitical conflicts, except the Russia-Ukrainewar. Hence, it is difficult to determine the isolated impact on the crypto assets. However, there has beena correlation betweenBitcoin and the S&P 500 index.
Read more: Crypto vs. Stocks: Where To Invest Your Money in 2023
As a result, along with the S&P 500, Bitcoin is also likely to show volatilityin a shorter time frame.
The Bitfinex Alpha report shared with BeInCrypto suggests that there will be “heightenedlevels of volatility” in Bitcoin’s price action. The screenshot below shows that the daily historical volatility remains above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin (BTC) has declined nearly by 2% since the Israel-Palestine war started on Saturday.
Read more: Cryptocurrency Trading Courses Tailored for Beginners.
Do you have anything to say about the impact on crypto due to the Israel-Palestine war or anything else? Write to us or join the discussion on our You can also catch us onTikTok, Facebook, orX (Twitter).
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