Hong Kong's Home and Youth Affairs Bureau: Participating in sports betting under "prediction markets" constitutes illegal gambling.

Techub News reported, according to RTHK, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed amendments to the Gambling Duty Ordinance and related subsidiary legislation last year, establishing a regulatory framework for basketball betting activities. The Home and Youth Affairs Bureau stated that, based on the latest developments, as a responsible government, it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth study of the emerging model and operational mechanisms of "prediction markets." To protect the public interest from harm, the advancement of new gambling projects should be halted before mature conditions are in place.

In response to inquiries, the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau indicated that the rapid development of "prediction markets" may introduce considerable uncertainty to the gambling market. Launching basketball betting under current circumstances would likely attract more attention and participation in illegal gambling through "prediction markets," indirectly fueling the illegal market. Authorities cited data estimating that the monthly transaction volume of "prediction markets" could increase fivefold by 2030, with over 40% related to sports. The transaction volume of "prediction markets" reached $64 billion last year, a 300% increase from $16 billion in 2024; monthly transaction volume rose from less than $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by the end of last year. Authorities believe that if Hong Kong residents place bets on sports events through "prediction markets," it constitutes illegal gambling, reiterating the government's consistent policy of discouraging gambling. The Hong Kong Jockey Club responded to inquiries by stating it is aware that the government will review the negative impact of "prediction markets" on the gambling market, including basketball betting, and respects the government's decision, expressing willingness to cooperate with related efforts. The Jockey Club added that it will await further instructions from the government regarding the application for a basketball betting license.