$124,000 — this is the new all-time high for Bitcoin in the current bull run, but the subsequent pullback and consolidation have made the market somewhat murky.
Has this bull market already reached its final stop?
Looking at on-chain data, we seem to be in a phase where the data is severely "conflicting":
Historical experience suggests that the alarm bells are already ringing.
The time window is approaching: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle typically peaks within 12 to 18 months after the halving. We are now entering this critical time window.
Old money is cashing out: The most resilient long-term holders have begun realizing profits on a large scale. On-chain data shows they have moved over 3.4 million Bitcoins. This is a classic signal of late-stage bull markets, where veterans distribute筹码 to new entrants.
Institutional "throttle" is easing: Bitcoin ETFs, once seen as market stabilizers, have recently shown a noticeable slowdown in fund inflows, even experiencing net outflows at times, causing the market to lose crucial buying support.
Under the dual pressure of long-term holder selling and slowing ETF inflows, market sentiment once fell into the "fear" zone.
But it seems too hasty to declare that the bubble has already burst.
We must look at the most reliable "bubble gauge" — the MVRV Z-Score. This indicator accurately tells you whether the market is in an extremely overbought state.
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score is hovering around just 2.0. Recall: at every true manic peak in history, this indicator surged to 3.0 or even above 5.0.
The core contradiction lies here: selling pressure is accelerating, but on-chain valuation suggests the market is still far from historical bubble peaks.
It is the institutionally-driven structural changes that are extending the bull market's lifecycle, turning a sharp, fast-peaking bubble into a flatter, more sustained "high plateau."
With the market at this stage, what is your decision?
Do you believe the "distribution" signal from the veterans? Or do you trust the "bull market extension" logic of institutional structure and on-chain valuation metrics? Share your strategy in the comments: are you making a strategic retreat, or buying the dip and preparing for the next wave?
