Summary
Attorney Hogan highlights the most likely outcomes in the legal dispute.
Settlement is likely, but could still mean a lengthy process.
Until at least 2026 there is no question about XRP’s legal status.
Jeremy Hogan, an attorney based in Florida who has been following the case of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple Labs, has provided a detailedpredictionfor what may be next in store. Hogan noted that there is some confusion within theXRPcommunity regarding the possible outcomes, so he has outlined them with precise probabilities.
Last week, Judge Analisa Torres made an importantdecisionby denying the SEC’s request for an early appeal. As a result, the lawsuit is now scheduled for trial in April 2024, during which CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chairman Chris Larsen will appear before a judge and jury.
Most Likely Outcome According to Hogan
According to Hogan, the most probable scenario is that the trial will proceed next year, with a likelihood of 39.456%. He also expressed that if a trial does take place, the SEC may still lose. The agency may also face the risk of potentially revealing sensitive information during the proceedings.
The Judge has left only the hardest part of the case for trial. The SEC could easily take an “L” at trial and have some of its dirty laundry aired at the same time.
Jeremy Hogan
If the SEC goes to trial, an appeal of the case won't be filed until 2025. That means an appellate ruling likely won't come out until 2026.
THEN, even IF the SEC wins on appeal, the case would most likely be remanded back to Judge Torres for further litigation (see attached). pic.twitter.com/aZQwQSieIv
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023
Hogan foresees that if the SEC loses and decides to appeal, the case could come to a final resolution in June of 2027.
The Second Option May Be the SEC’s Best Option
The second option, with a probability of 32.113%, is that the SEC may opt to settle the case with Garlinghouse and Larsen. This would lead to a final judgment against Ripple, which the SEC could subsequently appeal.
While this approach could expedite the resolution and avoid a jury trial, it might still take until 2026 to conclude all matters. Hogan thinks this option would be the best choice for the SEC. Taking a swipe at them he said: “For that reason, I doubt they do it.”
Possibility #2: The SEC could settle the case against the individual Defendants and move forward with obtaining a Final Judgment against Ripple, and then appeal.
Chance: 32.113%
This is the SEC's best option. For that reason, I doubt they do it.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023
Decision at Pretrial Conference?
The third possibility, with a likelihood of 18.987% would be to settle all charges against Ripple and the individual defendants. Hogan believes this is less likely because the SEC has not shown much interest in this. However, it would provide the agency with an opportunity to secure another victory and collect fines from the defendants.
Judge Torres indicated that this is an option when she made clear her ruling pertains only to XRP. In her October ruling, she also mandated that all parties convene for a pretrial conference in which settlement will be a discussion topic.
Last But Not Least
Regarding any unforeseen possibilities, Hogan assigns a probability of 8.675%, adding that until then, Torres’ summary judgment remains in effect as “the law of the land” at least until 2026. In the ruling, Torres said that XRP in itself is not a security.
Finally, something else I haven't thought of could happen.
Who knows.
Chance of happening: 8.675%
As you can see, the SEC has a couple of bad/lengthy options. Meanwhile, the Summary Judgment is the law of the land and that can't even possibly change until…2026 at earliest. pic.twitter.com/mn8TFGRTE7
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023
