Predictions for the upcoming Bitcoin halving are still pouring it, with most of them bullish on Bitcoin’s chance of a parabolic rise.
The upcoming Bitcoinhalving expected next year is already creating quite a bit of buzz as the market anticipates a reduction in Bitcoin block rewards. With a little over six months left till the halving, analysts are now offering predictions about Bitcoin’s chances.
While the specific count might not be the same across analysts, Rekt Capital postedon X that the halving is 189 days from Monday. Rekt Capital has offered an analysis of Bitcoin’s price behavior during the 189 days before the second halving in July 2016.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin fell 25% about 189 days before the second halving, in a re-accumulated range that lasted until two months pre-halving. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading at $27,522. A similar plunge, as seen during the 2015 re-accumulation phase, could see the king coin plunge well below $22,000.
After this ended, Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin then began its pre-halving rally and hit $776 at the time. Unfortunately, the analyst stated a pre-halving trace of 40%, which led to a post-halving re-accumulation period that put Bitcoin in the $566 – $776 range. Rekt Capital then noted that this re-accumulation phase lasted 6 months until December 2016 when a parabolic uptrend began.
Bitcoin Halving Predictions
As part of the buzz, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao made a postincluding careful predictions about Bitcoin halving based on past events. Zhao stated that there will be a lot more news, chatter, hype, anxiety, and expectations in the few months leading up to the halving. Furthermore, CZ said that Bitcoin’s price will not double immediately after the halving and predicts people will wonder why. He then added:
“The year after the halving, Bitcoin price hits multiple ATH (all time highs). And people ask why. People have short memories.”
The Binance boss however added a disclaimer that there is no proven causation and that history does not predict the future. Previous halvings have seen Bitcoin’s price become bullish months after the halving. Following this logic, a parabolic bull market may not come until 2025.
Another analyst known as Bluntz believes that the Bitcoin cycle has already bottomed. However, Bluntz said another dip is possible.
“We are in the 2019-2020 part of the cycle where we can still easily come down to $19-20k and put in a higher low and continue higher throughout 2024,” stated he.
Bullish on Bitcoin
There have been a few other bullish pre- and post-halving predictions. For instance, three Pantera Capital execs notedin a Blockchain Letterthat Bitcoin would likely spike before and after the event. Pantera Capital pointed out that each halving will now significantly affect the Bitcoin market since most Bitcoins are already in circulation. The execs then predicted that Bitcoin would hit $35,000 before the halving and pump to $148,000 sometime after. Bitcoin’s current circulating supply is over 19.5 million, about 93% of Bitcoin’s total possible supply.
The next halving event will reduce mining rewards from 6.25 per block to 3.125. Halving events happen every four years or after every 210,000 blocks.
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Author Tolu Ajiboye
Tolu is a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast based in Lagos. He likes to demystify crypto stories to the bare basics so that anyone anywhere can understand without too much background knowledge. When he's not neck-deep in crypto stories, Tolu enjoys music, loves to sing and is an avid movie lover.
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OPEC strongly criticized the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the decade’s end, labeling the IEA’s narrative as “extremely risky”, “impractical”, and “ideologically driven”.
OPEC has revised its medium- and long-term projections for global oil demand upward. The oil-producing consortium stated that meeting this increased demand would necessitate a substantial $14 trillion investment in the crude sector. This development comes even in the face of a rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies.
However, this long-term oil demand projection from OPEC differs from that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s primary energy watchdog. Currently, OPEC and the IEA, two prominent entities in the energy industry, are engaged in a debate over the concept of peak oil demand.
According to OPEC’s 2023 World Oil Outlook, the organization anticipates global demand to reach 116 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045. This is an increase from 99.6 million bpd in 2022 and approximately 6 million bpd more than its prediction in the previous year’s report.
OPEC also emphasized the potential for even higher growth, primarily driven by nations such as India, China, other Asian countries, Africa, and the Middle East. As said, OPEC predicts an investment requirement of $14 trillion to meet the long-term oil demand. This translates to $610 billion on average per year. The group also added that it’s important to meet these investment requirements. This would be ultimately beneficial to both consumers and producers.
For the medium term, OPEC also predicts the oil demand to reach 110.2 million bpd in 2028. Speaking on the development, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said:
“Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions. Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos.”
OPEC and IEA at Odds
OPEC’s predictions stand in stark contrast to those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which declared last month that the world was at the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. In an op-ed featured in the Financial Times, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, for the first time, assertedthat the demand for coal, oil, and gas would all peak before 2030, followed by a decline in fossil fuel consumption as climate policies come into effect.
Birol’s assessment is rooted in the IEA’s forthcoming World Energy Outlook report, a highly influential publication set to be released in October.
Birol celebrated this forecast as a “historic turning point” but cautioned that the projected declines would fall “far short” of the necessary steps to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold in the fight against climate change, with fossil fuel use being the primary driver of this crisis.
OPEC strongly criticized the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the decade’s end, labeling the IEA’s narrative as “extremely risky”, “impractical”, and “ideologically driven”. OPEC had previously urged the IEA to exercise caution in undermining investments in the industry.
Even before Birol’s recent op-ed, the IEA had hinted at the possibility of peak oil demand. The relationship between OPEC and the IEA has become increasingly strained in recent years, with Birol criticizing the pace at which the producer alliance increased output rates as it unwound the drastic production cuts implemented in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Author Bhushan Akolkar
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
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